Gold prices in India are projected to rise significantly in the first half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. The report forecasts gold prices to trade in the range of Rs 87,000 to Rs 90,000 per 10 grams between January and June 2025.
As per publicly available data, the current gold price stands at approximately Rs 83,410 per 10 grams for 22-carat gold and Rs 90,990 per 10 grams for 24-carat gold. The report highlights that the prevailing global trade uncertainties will sustain investment-driven demand for gold in the coming months.
The tariff concerns stem from the Trump administration’s decision to implement reciprocal tariffs on trading partners starting April 2, under the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan.” This move is expected to impact global trade dynamics, influencing commodity prices, including gold.
Reflecting the global trend, domestic gold prices in India have already risen by 4% over the past month, aided by a 2% appreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. The ICICI Bank report predicts that gold prices could further escalate in the latter half of 2025, potentially reaching Rs 94,000 to Rs 96,000 per 10 grams.
On the global front, gold prices are anticipated to trade between USD 3,200 and USD 3,400 per ounce by December 2025. Another key factor influencing gold’s upward trajectory is the potential decision by the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2025 and 2026. A decrease in interest rates typically makes gold more attractive, as lower US yields enhance its appeal as an investment.
Additionally, central banks worldwide are expected to continue diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, which could provide long-term stability to gold prices.
However, the soaring gold prices have impacted jewellery demand in India, leading to a decline in gold imports. The report noted that gold imports in the country fell to USD 2.3 billion, marking a 14% month-on-month drop and a substantial 63% decline on a year-on-year basis. Demand is expected to revive in the upcoming festive season, which traditionally drives higher gold purchases.
Despite the dip in jewellery demand, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to attract strong inflows. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold ETFs saw net inflows of Rs 19.8 billion in February 2025, surpassing the average monthly inflow of Rs 14.8 billion recorded over the past nine months.
With multiple economic and geopolitical factors at play, gold prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory, making it a favored asset among investors in the coming months.
