A series of intense weather events including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, flash floods, and landslides swept across several parts of Jammu and Kashmir last week, resulting in severe destruction and loss of life. Similar conditions were reported earlier this month in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, raising alarm over a growing pattern of extreme climate events in India’s hill states.
Meteorologists attribute this uptick in extreme weather to back-to-back Western Disturbances (WDs), which have not only intensified but also increased in frequency. Experts believe these changes are indicative of a broader climatic shift linked to global warming.
“The dynamics of Western Disturbances are undergoing fundamental transformation due to climate change,” said Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather. “This has resulted in cooler easterly winds replacing the typical hot and dry northwesterlies, moderating temperatures in northwestern plains and delaying the onset of heatwaves.”
WDs, weather systems embedded in the subtropical westerly jet stream, play a crucial role in North India’s climate, particularly in winter. These systems typically bring rain and snow to the western Himalayas, supporting agricultural cycles and maintaining the region’s crucial glacial mass balance. However, rising global temperatures have disrupted their typical patterns, with significant implications.
Former Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, KJ Ramesh, noted that WDs began occurring more frequently from late January, bringing sustained rainfall to Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Recent research suggests that while precipitation in higher altitudes is expected to rise, foothill regions may experience less snowfall and increased rainfall, affecting water storage and agricultural productivity.
“The rapid warming of the Arabian Sea is feeding more moisture into WDs,” Ramesh explained. “This extra moisture amplifies the intensity of these weather systems, increasing the risk of flash floods and landslides in hill regions.”
Prof. A.P. Dimri, Director of the Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, pointed out that climate change is not only increasing the frequency of WDs but also altering their trajectory and impact. “The subtropical westerly jet has expanded, allowing WDs to oscillate more widely and reach regions like the Karakoram with greater snowfall,” he said. “This broader movement is fueling unseasonal and extreme precipitation events beyond traditional winter months.”
There are growing concerns that these shifts will blur seasonal boundaries and increase the likelihood of severe weather throughout the year. Experts predict that snowfall will become less frequent in the foothills while increasing over glaciated regions such as the Karakoram and Tibetan Plateau. This change in the snow-to-rain ratio could have cascading effects on water availability and glacial stability in the region.
“Western Disturbances are no longer confined to winter,” said Prof. Anjal Prakash of the Bharti Institute of Public Policy. “They are now contributing to year-round moisture surges, destabilizing the Himalayas and posing new risks. These developments signal a broader atmospheric restructuring driven by climate change.”
As these events become more frequent and unpredictable, scientists urge policymakers, disaster management authorities, and local communities to adapt swiftly. The emerging climate reality calls for strengthened forecasting systems, infrastructure resilience, and community preparedness to mitigate the growing risks in the Himalayan region.
