Indian stock market benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Thursday, influenced by weak domestic sentiment stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Mixed global market cues are also adding to investor caution.
The Gift Nifty, a key indicator of market sentiment, was trading around 24,412, showing a discount of nearly 49 points compared to the Nifty futures’ previous close, signaling a negative start.
Despite geopolitical headwinds, domestic equities closed in the green on Tuesday. The Sensex added 105.71 points, or 0.13%, to end at 80,746.78, while the Nifty 50 rose by 34.80 points, or 0.14%, to close at 24,414.40.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex continues to exhibit a non-directional pattern with high intraday volatility. According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. A move above 81,000 could see the index climb to 81,300–81,500, while a fall below 80,500 may trigger further downside toward 80,200 or even 79,800.
Nifty 50 Outlook
The Nifty 50 showed resilience in the previous session, recovering from a weak open and closing above the 24,400 level. Analysts observe that the index remains range-bound but maintains a mildly positive bias.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted a bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels. However, he cautioned that a drop below 24,200 could lead to a short-term correction, while a breakout above 24,600 might revive bullish momentum.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlighted that the index defended the critical 24,200 level and rebounded from a double-bottom pattern, with the RSI steady at 65 and MACD signaling continuation of the current trend. He identified support at 24,300–24,200 and resistance at 24,530–24,750.
Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates added that a close above 24,590 could lead to a rally toward 24,800–24,850, while the 200-Day Simple Moving Average near 24,050 remains a crucial support.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, pointed out the formation of a Bullish Belt Hold candlestick pattern and advised a sell-on-rise approach if the market opens flat or slightly higher. Key levels to watch are support at 24,300 and resistance at 24,650.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty surged 339.50 points, or 0.63%, to close at 54,610.90 on Wednesday. The index formed a Piercing Line candlestick pattern, reflecting buying interest at lower levels. Om Mehra noted that Bank Nifty’s recovery past the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level suggests that the recent pullback has not disrupted the prevailing uptrend. Key support levels lie at 53,800 and 54,200, with potential upside above 55,100.
According to Bajaj Broking Research, the index is consolidating within a falling channel pattern and has taken 10 sessions to retrace only 38.2% of the prior rally, indicating strength. Analysts expect Bank Nifty to trade in the 53,500–56,000 range, with previous breakout levels offering strong support.
While the broader trend remains neutral with a slight positive bias, traders are likely to remain cautious in the near term. Volatility may persist as geopolitical developments continue to influence investor sentiment. Key levels in the major indices will guide the next directional move.
