Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Friday, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Indications from the Gift Nifty point to a gap-down opening, with the index trading around the 23,974 mark, nearly 298 points below the previous Nifty futures close.
The pressure on equities comes after reports emerged that Pakistani drones and missiles targeted certain Indian military positions along the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir. These threats were swiftly neutralised by Indian forces, with Army Air Defence Units reportedly downing two Pakistani drones in the Naushera sector.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended in the red, with late-session selling dragging indices lower. The Sensex fell by 411.97 points or 0.51%, closing at 80,334.81, while the Nifty 50 dropped 140.60 points or 0.58% to settle at 24,273.80.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting short-term weakness. Analysts note a lower top formation on intraday charts, which could extend the downside. According to Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities, the bearish sentiment is likely to persist as long as the index remains below 80,900. A fall could push the Sensex towards 80,000–79,700 levels, while a recovery above 80,900 may trigger a rally towards 81,200–81,400.
Nifty 50 Outlook
The Nifty 50 experienced a sharp reversal on Thursday, forming a long bearish candle that nullified Wednesday’s bullish momentum. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities believes a breakdown below the immediate support at the 10-day EMA (24,250) could expose the index to further declines toward 23,850.
Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities notes that Nifty is currently holding above its 20 and 50-day EMAs, keeping the broader trend intact. However, a breach below its 9-day EMA could intensify selling. On the charts, support lies at 24,050 and 23,900, while resistance is positioned around 24,450.
Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates added that Nifty continues to struggle below its key resistance zone at 24,590. A breakout above this level could lead to a rally up to 24,850, while failure to hold above the 200-day SMA near 24,050 may lead to further downside.
VLA Ambala of Stock Market Today highlighted the formation of a “dark cloud cover” candlestick pattern on Nifty, indicating a potential “sell-on-rise” scenario driven by current geopolitical tensions. She anticipates support around 24,050–24,200 and resistance between 24,450–24,520.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty closed 245.25 points lower at 54,365.65 on Thursday, forming a bearish candle as it encountered resistance at the 55,000 level. According to Hrishikesh Yedve, key resistance levels are seen at 55,000 and 56,000, while support is likely around 53,890.
Om Mehra noted a lower high and lower low pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting short-term weakness. The index has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 54,500, with the next significant support at the 38.2% level near 53,500. Resistance is anticipated around 54,800.
Meanwhile, analysts at Bajaj Broking point to a consolidation phase for Bank Nifty, indicating that the recent retracement remains shallow compared to its prior uptrend. They see strong support between 53,000 and 53,500, which aligns with previous breakout and gap-up zones.
The Indian stock market is expected to stay volatile in the near term due to geopolitical developments. Traders and investors are advised to adopt a level-based strategy and closely monitor support-resistance zones amid ongoing uncertainties.
