The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is poised to unveil its first monetary policy decision for the fiscal year 2025–26 later today, with widespread expectations of a 25-basis point cut in the benchmark repo rate. The decision comes against the backdrop of easing domestic inflation and early signs of a slowdown in economic growth.
The three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, concluded this morning. The outcome of the deliberations is anticipated to be announced shortly, followed by a press conference scheduled for 12 noon. The event will also be streamed live on the central bank’s official YouTube channel.
This policy review gains significance amid rising global trade tensions triggered by recent tariff increases imposed by the United States. These developments have heightened concerns over a potential global economic slowdown, with emerging markets like India facing increased uncertainty.
According to market analysts, a 25-basis point reduction in the repo rate appears likely, reflecting the RBI’s intention to support growth while inflation remains under control. A shift in the RBI’s policy stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’ is also being closely watched, as it may signal the possibility of additional rate cuts in the near future.
In its previous review, the RBI had lowered the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent—its first rate cut in nearly five years—while retaining a neutral stance.
Meanwhile, Indian stock markets remained resilient, posting solid gains on Tuesday despite global trade uncertainties. The Nifty 50 surged by 1.69% to close at 22,535.85, and the BSE Sensex advanced 1.49% to end at 74,227.08.
Experts believe that India’s limited direct exposure to the recent U.S. tariffs has helped cushion its markets. A. Balasubramanian, CEO of Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, noted that declining oil prices may further aid in easing inflation, opening the door for continued monetary support from the central bank.
Governor Malhotra’s statements during the press briefing are expected to provide key insights into the RBI’s outlook on India’s macroeconomic trajectory and its response to evolving global risks.
