Unprecedented Climate Extremes Await Today’s Youth
New research led by climate scientists from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) paints a sobering picture: today’s children face a future dominated by unprecedented exposure to extreme weather events. Heatwaves, droughts, crop failures, wildfires, river floods, and tropical cyclones are set to become defining features of their lives—unless global leaders take swift and decisive climate action.
The study warns that if current climate policies persist and global temperatures rise by 3.5°C by 2100, 92% of children born in 2020 will face unprecedented heatwave exposure in their lifetime. This figure represents 111 million children in just one birth cohort.
The Paris Agreement Could Shield Millions
The research also highlights a hopeful path forward. Meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target could protect 49 million children born in 2020 from this extreme heatwave exposure. When considering all children currently aged between 5 and 18—an estimated 1.69 billion globally—the stakes are even higher.
- Under a 3.5°C scenario, 1.5 billion children will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves.
- By keeping warming below 1.5°C, 654 million children could be spared this future.
A Generational Divide in Climate Impact
Dr. Luke Grant, lead author of the study, explains that the threshold used in the analysis identifies climate extremes that would have been statistically near-impossible in a pre-industrial world. “Living an unprecedented life,” says Grant, means experiencing climate extremes with less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of occurrence without human-caused climate change.
Children born after 1980 face exponentially higher risks. Even if warming is limited to 1.5°C:
- 52% of children born in 2020 will still experience unprecedented heatwaves.
- In contrast, only 16% of those born in 1960 would face the same.
Children in the Global South Face the Harshest Reality
The burden of climate change is deeply unfair. The study confirms that children in tropical and low-income countries will bear the worst consequences. Under current policies:
- 95% of the most socioeconomically vulnerable children born in 2020 will face extreme heatwaves.
- By comparison, 78% of the least vulnerable children will face such exposure.
Professor Wim Thiery of VUB emphasizes the moral dimensions: “Precisely the most vulnerable children experience the worst escalation of climate extremes. With limited resources and adaptation options, they face disproportionate risks.”
Numbers That Demand Urgent Action
The study, supported by institutions such as Environment and Climate Change Canada, KU Leuven, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), and ETH Zurich, presents striking projections of how different global warming scenarios will impact the 1.69 billion children aged 5 to 18 in 2025. The findings reveal that the number of children facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes grows sharply with each degree of warming.
Under a 1.5°C pathway, 855 million children will face extreme heatwaves. This number rises dramatically to 1.35 billion under a 2.7°C scenario, and further to 1.51 billion under 3.5°C. In terms of crop failures, the exposure increases from 316 million (1.5°C) to 400 million (2.7°C), and 431 million (3.5°C). For wildfires, 119 million children are affected under 1.5°C, increasing to 134 million at 2.7°C and 147 million at 3.5°C.
The number of children facing droughts jumps from 89 million (1.5°C) to 111 million (2.7°C), and 116 million (3.5°C). Regarding river floods, 132 million children will be exposed under 1.5°C, rising to 188 million and 191 million under 2.7°C and 3.5°C respectively. Finally, for tropical cyclones, 101 million children are at risk under 1.5°C, increasing to 163 million under both 2.7°C and 3.5°C pathways.
These projections make clear that every fraction of a degree in temperature rise translates into millions more children exposed to devastating climate impacts—making the case for urgent, ambitious climate action.
“A Crisis Children Did Not Create”
Save the Children International, a co-publisher of the accompanying report, underscores the urgency. CEO Inger Ashing states: “Children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they are not responsible for. Dangerous heat, lost homes, empty plates. This research shows there is still hope—but only if we act urgently and ambitiously.”
COP30: A Pivotal Opportunity for Change
As world leaders prepare to submit updated climate commitments at COP30 in Brazil, the findings serve as a stark warning. Under current global policies, warming is on track to reach 2.7°C this century. The research sends an unequivocal message: limiting warming to 1.5°C is critical to protecting the future of children worldwide.
“The planet is only 0.2°C away from the 1.5°C threshold,” warns Thiery. “World leaders must step up—now—to reduce emissions and ease the climate burden on the next generations.”
