The S-W Monsoon is making steady progress, with the northern limit currently passing through Nancowry island. Favorable conditions are predicted for the monsoon’s further advancement into the South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and the Andaman-Nicobar Islands over the next 24 hours.
Simultaneously, a western disturbance, characterized by a trough and a cyclonic circulation, has developed over North Pakistan. This system is being accompanied by a moisture supply from the Arabian Sea and is anticipated to move across Northwest India on May 25-26.
As a result of these weather patterns, the Western Himalayan Region can expect light to moderate rainfall in most areas, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and occasional gusty winds. The plains of Northwest India will also experience rainfall activity at multiple locations, along with thunderstorms, lightning, occasional gusty winds, and squalls. The intensity of these conditions will peak on May 25.
On May 25, isolated places in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and North Rajasthan may witness thundersqualls or gusty winds, with speeds reaching 50-60 kmph. Additionally, moderate to heavy rainfall is highly likely at isolated places in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and West Uttar Pradesh.
Furthermore, hailstorms are expected to occur in isolated areas of Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, and North Rajasthan on May 25. Rajasthan may also experience duststorms or thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds on May 25-26. The northwestern plains may encounter strong surface winds, ranging from 25-35 kmph, on May 25.
Looking ahead, a fresh western disturbance is forecasted to bring another rainy spell to the region starting from May 29. In addition to these developments, a trough extends from Northwest Uttar Pradesh to the West Bengal coast at lower tropospheric levels.
Concurrently, a cyclonic circulation is observed over Jharkhand and its vicinity, while another cyclonic circulation persists over East Bangladesh and its neighboring areas. Southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal toward Northeast India continue to prevail at lower tropospheric levels.
Under the influence of these weather systems, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim should brace for light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds. The rest of East India is expected to experience isolated to scattered rain showers with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds over the next two days.
On May 25, isolated places in Jharkhand may witness hailstorms, while thundersqualls or gusty winds might affect isolated areas of Gangetic West Bengal. Furthermore, Assam and Meghalaya will likely experience light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds over the next two days. Isolated places in Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura could also see heavy rainfall on May 25-26.
Lastly, a weak north-south trough stretching from Southeast Madhya Pradesh to South Interior Karnataka, across Vidarbha and North Interior Karnataka, may result in light to moderate isolated to scattered rains accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds over most parts of South Peninsular India within the next 24 hours. However, Kerala and Mahe should expect fairly widespread rainfall activity over the next five days.
(Note: The information provided in this article is based on current meteorological observations by India Meteorological Department)
