The Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautious note on Friday, influenced by losses in global markets. However, trends on the Gift Nifty suggest a positive start for the Indian benchmark indices. The Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,460 level, indicating a premium of nearly 50 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Market Performance on Thursday
On Thursday, domestic equity indices ended relatively flat. The Sensex fell 27.43 points to close at 79,897.34, while the Nifty 50 settled 8.50 points lower at 24,315.95. The Nifty 50 formed a small negative candle on the daily chart with a lower shadow, indicating potential support levels.
Technical Analysis and Support Levels
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, highlighted the formation of lower shadows in the last few sessions, suggesting crucial support around the 24,200 – 24,100 levels. “Such formations during consolidations often result in a decisive upside breakout of the range, which is a positive indication,” he said. The immediate support of the 10-day EMA remains intact, and the market has been sustaining above this moving average for the past month. An upside bounce is likely in the short term.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Shetti noted that the underlying trend of Nifty remains choppy with a positive bias. “A sustainable move above 24,500 levels is expected to open the next upside targets of 24,900 levels in the near term. Immediate support is at 24,150,” he added.
Open Interest Data Analysis
Mandar Bhojane, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, analyzed the Nifty Open Interest (OI) data. On the call side, the highest OI was observed at the 24,800 and 25,000 strike prices, while on the put side, the highest OI was at the 24,000 strike price. This data provides insights into potential support and resistance levels for the Nifty 50.
Nifty 50 Predictions
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, predicted that in the near term, the Nifty might trade sideways, with 24,150 and 24,400 acting as key levels. “A decisive fall below 24,150 might trigger panic in the market, while a decisive move above 24,400 might induce a rally towards 24,650,” he said.
RSI Readings and Market Strategy
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, noted that Nifty’s RSI readings indicate overbought conditions on the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. “In this case, a ‘sell-on-the-rise’ strategy can be effective for the next 2-3 days. However, the trend could remain bullish over the next 6-9 months, but I advise following a cautious approach to navigate short-term risks,” Ambala said. According to option OI data, the benchmark index holds key support at 24,300 and resistance at 24,500.
Bank Nifty Predictions
The Bank Nifty index ended 81 points higher at 52,271 on Thursday, forming a small-bodied bearish candlestick pattern with a long lower shadow. “The Bank Nifty index is trading near a crucial support zone of 52,000-51,800. If it manages to hold this level, it could witness a pullback rally towards 52,500. A sustained move above 52,500 will open up the gates for 53,000. However, if it fails to hold the support at 51,800, it could decline further towards the 51,300-51,000 zone,” De said.
As the Indian stock market opens on July 12, investors should be prepared for cautious trading influenced by global trends. Technical indicators suggest potential support and resistance levels, providing a framework for short-term and long-term strategies.
