Denmark’s biggest bank has sharply lowered its expectations for the country’s economy, citing weaker prospects for pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk A/S, whose recent struggles have weighed heavily on growth.
Danske Bank A/S now projects Danish GDP to expand 1.8% in 2025, a steep reduction from its June estimate of 3.2%. The downgrade reflects both revised official statistics and a more cautious view of Novo Nordisk’s performance, according to a report released Wednesday. Growth in 2026 is forecast to improve to 2.3%, though still slower than earlier projections.
The shift comes as Novo Nordisk has twice cut its sales and profit guidance this year, pressured by intensifying US competition and the emergence of generic alternatives to its best-selling diabetes and weight-loss drugs, Wegovy and Ozempic. The company’s shares have fallen by nearly two-thirds from their 2024 peak, raising concerns over jobs and consumer confidence in the otherwise resilient Scandinavian economy.
Across the region, Danske Bank also updated its outlook for Sweden and Norway. In Sweden, GDP is expected to grow just 1.1% in 2025 before picking up to 2% the following year as the effects of volatile US trade policy diminish. The bank now anticipates the Riksbank will cut rates once more this November, trimming the policy rate to 1.75% as inflationary pressures ease.
Norway, excluding oil and gas production, is set for slightly stronger growth of 1.9% this year, up from a previous estimate of 1.7%. The bank maintained its 2026 forecast at 1.6%, supported by expectations of further monetary easing amounting to 125 basis points through the end of that year.
