Indian stock market benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Monday, mirroring subdued global cues. Gift Nifty trends suggest a weak start, with the index trading around the 25,060 mark—approximately 18 points below the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, domestic equity benchmarks edged lower as investors booked profits after recent gains. The Sensex declined by 200.15 points, or 0.24%, to end at 82,330.59, while the Nifty 50 slipped 42.30 points, or 0.17%, to close at 25,019.80.
Sensex Outlook
After gaining 2,875 points last week and forming a bullish weekly candle, the Sensex appears to be maintaining its upward trajectory. Technical charts indicate a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signaling continued bullish sentiment.
Amol Athawale, Vice President – Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted that while short-term market sentiment remains positive, a “buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies” strategy may suit traders best. He highlighted 81,300 and 80,500 (20-day SMA) as key support zones, while immediate resistance lies near 82,700. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for a rally toward 83,800, whereas a drop below 80,500 could weaken the trend.
Nifty 50 Technical View
Despite a minor dip on Friday, the Nifty 50 held above the crucial 25,000 mark. Analysts suggest that the recent consolidation reflects healthy market behavior following a strong upward move.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP – Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, stated that the index’s breakout on the weekly chart supports a medium-term target of 25,500–25,800. Immediate support is seen around the 24,800–24,850 zone, making a case for a buy-on-dips approach.
Technical indicators remain bullish. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, pointed out that both daily and weekly RSI levels are comfortably above 60, indicating strong momentum. The MACD is also supportive of continued gains. Mehra added that resistance levels are at 25,150 and 25,300, with a breakout above these paving the way for an extended rally.
Bajaj Broking Research echoed this outlook, predicting continued upside toward the 25,200–25,300 levels. The brokerage firm sees the 24,400–24,500 zone as crucial support, while any breakout above 25,300 may drive the index further toward 25,750.
Bank Nifty Analysis
The Bank Nifty index closed flat at 55,354.90 on Friday but gained 3.28% over the week, forming a bullish weekly candle. Analysts suggest the index is consolidating within a downward-sloping flag pattern, typically seen as a continuation structure.
Om Mehra noted that Bank Nifty remains near the upper boundary of this pattern, hinting at a possible breakout. RSI remains strong above 60, while MACD momentum is stabilizing. A breakout above 55,500 could push the index toward the 56,100–56,500 resistance zone, with immediate support at 54,800 and 54,500.
Hrishikesh Yedve added that a move above 55,500 could lead to a test of 56,000–56,100 levels, while 54,440 remains a key support level for traders to monitor.
Bajaj Broking Research forecasts a gradual move toward 56,400, identifying it as the 123.6% external retracement of the recent pullback. The brokerage also observed that the shallow correction indicates a strong underlying trend. Key support levels are seen at 54,000–54,500, aligned with the 20-day EMA and previous gap area.
Market Sentiment and Volatility
India VIX, the volatility index, declined nearly 23% last week to 16.55. Analysts suggest that a further drop below 15 could support a sustained rally, as lower volatility often boosts investor confidence.
Despite a likely subdued opening, the broader outlook for Indian markets remains optimistic. Technical indicators across major indices suggest strength, and analysts continue to recommend a buy-on-dips strategy. Stock-specific action will remain in focus as the Q4 FY25 earnings season progresses.
